ASSESSING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TOURIST ARRIVALS AND PET PLASTIC WASTE COLLECTION IN SRI LANKA: AN ANALYSIS FROM 2019 TO 2024

Abstract

Plastic pollution remains a major global environmental concern, with post consumer PET (polyethene terephthalate) waste forming a significant share of plastic debris. Sri Lanka, as a developing island nation and popular tourist destination, faces many challenges in managing plastic waste, particularly during periods of increased tourist arrivals. While previous studies have broadly examined plastic waste generation in tourism contexts, there are no proper studies related to PET plastics or to quantifying their relationship with tourism in Sri Lanka. This study addresses that gap by investigating the relationship between monthly international tourist arrivals and PET plastic waste collection volumes reported by a major private sector recycler from 2019 to 2024. The recycler collects PET from both formal and informal streams nationwide, and tourist arrival data obtained from the Tourism Development Authority. Descriptive analysis and Pearson correlation tests were applied to assess both direct and lagged relationships between two variables. Lagged analysis was conducted by shifting the PET waste data by one month to test for delayed impacts of tourism. Descriptive analysis revealed sharp declines in both tourist arrivals and PET collection in mid-2019 and early 2020, corresponding to Easter attacks and COVID-19 travel restrictions, respectively. PET collection gradually recovered from late 2021, and even as tourism recovery was more gradual, indicating that domestic consumption and improvements in collection infrastructure also influenced collection trends. Pearson correlation tests showed a statistically significant moderate positive correlation between tourist arrivals and PET collection (r = 0.629, p<0.05). The lagged analysis also revealed a moderate correlation (r = 0.430, p<0.05), suggesting that the effect of tourism on PET waste collection may not be immediate but may emerge in the following month due to delays in waste generation, collection, and transport processes. By linking the nationwide PET waste collection to tourism flows, this study provides new empirical evidence of tourism’s contribution to plastic waste in Sri Lanka. The findings highlight the importance of seasonally responsive waste management strategies and can inform waste collectors, recyclers and local authorities in planning resource allocation during peak tourist seasons.