Abstract:
Sri Lanka's electric vehicle (EV) fleet has
grown through a volatile policy history: a tax-concession-
driven boom in 2015, a sharp decline after the 2018
budget reforms, near-total suspension under the 2020–
2025 vehicle import ban, and an explosive rebound after
the ban was lifted in February 2025. This paper develops
a quantitative forecast of end-of-life (EOL) EV battery
volumes and associated environmental risk for Sri Lanka,
using Weibull survival models combined with Material
Flow Analysis (MFA), run separately for Motor Cars and
Motor Cycles and resolved by battery pack model and
cathode chemistry. Using Department of Motor Traffic
(DMT) registration data for 2012–2025 and pack-level
lifetime parameters adapted to Sri Lanka's hot climate,
the model projects EOL battery volumes and hazardous
material load through 2040 under three end-of-life
management scenarios. Results show that Motor Cycles
dominate unit counts (about 96% of retiring batteries by
2040), while Motor Cars carry 82% of the hazardous load
of vehicles already registered; once projected
registrations are included, Motor Cycles carry 54% of the
hazardous load and about half of the 2025 car cohort
remains in service in 2040. The first wave, already under
way since about 2018, consists mainly of manganese-rich
Nissan Leaf packs, and lithium iron phosphate (LFP)
becomes the majority of retiring mass from 2031.
Cumulative hazardous material released under Business-
as-Usual conditions is projected at approximately 4,425
metric tons by 2040 (3,067–6,041 t across lifetime cases),
falling by 85% under an Aggressive Intervention
scenario. The paper concludes with policy
recommendations for Sri Lanka's Central Environmental
Authority and Department of Motor Traffic.
